Local evidence guide
Reading local evidence
A guide for church leaders who encounter a local statistic or public claim and want to evaluate it before acting. Seven questions and a sentence frame you can use with your team.
Seven questions to ask
1. Who published it?
Trace the claim to its original source. Record the author, publisher, publication date, method, and any stated funding or conflicts. A study, press release, news report, and social post require different checks; the format alone does not establish reliability.
2. What geography does it cover?
A statistic for your county does not describe your neighborhood. Check whether the source reports at the national, state, county, city, or ZIP level, and whether that matches the claim being made.
3. What time period does it describe?
Durable context from a five-year survey is not a change from last month. Identify the observation year or collection period the data actually represents.
4. What changed, and compared with what?
A number going up only matters if you know the baseline. Ask what the figure is being compared to, whether the comparison period is valid, and whether the difference falls within the margin of error.
5. Who is represented, and who may be missing?
Check the population, subgroup, denominator, participation, data-collection method, and coverage gaps. Rural areas, small populations, and non-respondents may be undercounted or excluded entirely.
6. What does the source not establish?
A modeled health estimate does not prove a diagnosis. A weather alert does not confirm household impact. A search-trend spike does not demonstrate hardship. Name what the evidence cannot tell you before you repeat it.
7. What should we check locally before considering a response?
Call a partner organization, talk with a county office, or confirm the condition with people who work in the area. Local verification grounds the statistic in your actual setting and prevents acting on a number that does not apply.
A reusable sentence frame
When you summarize a finding for a staff meeting or a newsletter, fill in each part:
According to source, the measure of what was counted or estimated for geography during time period was figure and comparison. Based on this, we can say bounded conclusion. This does not establish limitation. Before acting, we should check locally by verification step.
What evidence can and cannot do
Evidence can inform discussion. It can surface a development worth investigating and frame a responsible question. It cannot replace local relationships, qualified expertise, prayer, discernment, or church leadership. A statistic describes what was measured; it does not tell you what to do about it.